Are Lockdowns Effective?
Dr. Dan Erikson, on April 27, 2020 from California says it is time to end our lockdown because lockdowns are not working. Dr. Erikson based his findings on a real life data set and compares that to locales that did not shut down. He explains his why general lockdowns are ineffectual based upon stats and any restrictions should be based on the landscape of that specific area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93QGMEERgMk
The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons release a statement on July 13, 2020 that suggests we need to take a different approach to Covid surge. That statement can be accessed here: https://aapsonline.org/aaps-suggests-different-approach-to-covid-19-surge/ and agrees with Erikson re: restrictions based upon locale.
Financial Burden of Re-opening Businesses/Schools with Restrictions – THIS is my opinion!
One piece of statistical data that clearly emerges when one digs into Covid-19 is, generally speaking, it is as lethal as an average flu season and has risks to the same population demographics as the flu. In fact, in 2009 we had a horrible flu season with a death toll that out-paced Covid-19 by more than two times the rate of death and we did not shut down our economy or schools. And it begs the simplest of questions: why are we shut down now?
And why are we continuing to shut down? We have no proof that shutdowns are accomplishing anything save harming people and business. Why are we not beating a path to the countries and locations that did not shut down and broadly broadcasting the findings of what is occurring there?
Businesses that do re-open do so under scaled operations and restrictions. The restrictions that are being bandied about for school reopenings have an incredible financial burden. Is anyone considering the time and cost investment to institute these restrictions? Will these costs wind up being covered by tax payers? Can small businesses and schools actually survive bearing this additional financial burden? These restrictions and scaled re-openings do nothing but cost the small business owner additional money to reopen their business. Small businesses have lost money for the past 4 months are now being asked to spend additional funds, institute policies that cost money, and hire additional staff to manage those policies. Large global corporate businesses (like Home Depot, Walmart, etc.) were considered essential businesses and continued operation. Even with restrictions, those businesses were allowed to continue earning. The small business owner was disposable in this equation. If we can stand in line at Home Depot and use social distancing, why we can’t we do that at any business?
An interesting fact to consider: during the July 4th holiday weekend, Gavin Newsom ordered restaurants, bars, and other small businesses closed. Meanwhile, his winery, PlumpJack, was open.
Legality of Covid ‘orders’
If we look to the Covid-19 guidance provided by the state of California, it is clearly stated as guidance. It is not law or rule (avail. here: https://covid19.ca.gov/industry-guidance/). However, the website (which is an official website for CA) says that businesses must perform 5 critical activities before reopening which include:
1. Perform a detailed risk assessment and create a site-specific protection plan
2. Train employees on how to limit the spread of Covid-19. This includes how to screen themselves for symptoms and when to stay home.
3. Set up individual control measures and screenings
4. Put disinfection protocols in place
5. Establish physical distancing guidelines
Consider that this guidance was never voted into law. Laws require the legislative body of governance to convene and vote a proposed bill into law – this never happened. And governors do not have the power to make law. This is one of the reasons we’ve seen many instances of law enforcement refusing to enforce Covid-19 restrictions. An example of this is when Gavin Newsom closed all beaches under threat of arrest over the July 4th holiday weekend and the LA Sheriff’s Department shared on social media “safety first, jail last.”
Orange County recently caved to public opinion and protests regarding face mask mandates. (article avail. here: https://abc7.com/orange-county-coronavirus-mask-oc-masks-health-officer-resigns/6243230/ ). The person largely responsible for this was Peggy Hall who created lots of public awareness by educating people about what powers the governor actually has. Her YouTube channel is here: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheHealthyAmericanPeggyHall/videos and here she educates about guidance being a suggestion, not a law. That video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYcG72rwsek ; this video goes further to use examples to explain what regulations can be cited/used to close businesses, and oddly, those are not Covid restrictions.
In Florida, residents and one political leader, Anthony Sabatini filed suit alleging orders requiring masks illegal. (Article here: https://www.wftv.com/news/local/its-utter-nonsense-florida-rep-anthony-sabatini-files-lawsuit-alleging-orange-county-mask-ordinance-is-unconstitutional/MC6KXPRYUVHMXNOMACKSHNUYMM/ )
Additional data on legal activity regarding the legality of Covid regulations was compiled by Corey Lynn, an investigative journalist. Here she cites several attorneys bringing law suits in several cities challenging the legality of Covid restrictions. (avail here: https://www.coreysdigs.com/law-order/attorneys-fight-for-constitutional-rights-against-tyranny/ ; links to all her resources are included in the article)
Pastor Arthur Hodges of South Bay Pentecostal Church has sued the State of California, Gavin Newsome, and other officials for the illegal shutdown of churches in the state. The suit was filed on May 8, 2020 and has been appealed several times. They are still fighting to keep churches open. That clip is here: https://youtu.be/xeuCGmddqGI?t=419 (link set to start at 6:59)
On July 16, 2020 NBC News tweeted about a Provo Utah public meeting being abruptly cancelled when the room filled up with people wearing no masks. Do notice the social post and the article doesn’t talk about anyone being fined or arrested, however both shame the unmasked people to perpetuate fear tactics. The article is here: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/utah-meeting-masks-cancelled-when-residents-without-masks-pack-room-n1234017?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma
Statistics:
There is a very high likelihood that CDC statistics regarding incidence and mortality are incorrect:
• April 13, 2020 https://canadafreepress.com/article/the-cdc-confesses-to-lying-about-covid-19-death-numbers
• July 14, 2020 https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/exclusive-three-reasons-china-coronavirus-mortality-counts-reported-cdc-fraudulent/
• July 2, 2020 Dr. Scott Atlas, Hoover Inst. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPPRwEW-5-g discussing the spread of Covid-19 and flatlining death rates
• July 7, 2020, Dr. Scott Atlas https://youtu.be/QjJNNVzi5e0?t=326 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjJNNVzi5e0 playback starts at 5:55 and discusses fatality rates, risks groups and risks for children
• July 14, 2020 Robert Guaderrama https://youtu.be/rOSGxWuiH18?t=837 playback starts at 14 minutes and discusses errors in counting cases in Florida
I was unable to find a date for this quote, but will include nonetheless: Catherine D’Ignazio, an MIT professor and coauthor of the recent book Data Feminism, advises caution when viewing Covid-19 visualizations of any kind, even from authoritative sources like the Centers for Disease Control. The agency offers a map displaying the number of coronavirus cases by state in ranges, using shading. That format, known as a choropleth map, means high-population states like California will appear worse-hit than smaller states even if they have lower rates of infection, D’Ignazio says. Many charts and maps don’t attempt to convey the huge uncertainties in Covid-19–related data, caused by problems ramping up testing, particularly in the US. One Ohio official recently told WIRED her state’s count of cases was likely wrong by a factor of more than 10,000. “Data visualization carries the aura of certainty—clean lines and geometric shapes and reputable sources of data all convey authority,” D’Ignazio says. “But in situations like this, those conventions are doing us a disservice.” She notes that immigrants, women, and low-income people are more likely to be among those missing cases because they are less likely to be willing or able to seek testing.
Another example, the state of Texas chose to report its own Covid statistics to refute what mainstream media was saying about their state. This is a recent stat page from Texas Public Policy Foundation which concludes that the state of Texas is certainly being cautious, however the state is not in a desperate crisis. (avail here: https://www.texaspolicy.com/snapshot?utm_content=134043896&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-27702749 )
One gentleman chose to compare 2020 Covid deaths to the death rates of previous flu seasons in Texas. Here’s what he found:
These are the links he shared: 2019 flu data: https://t.co/E5tTqF6cPw?amp=1 (death stats shown on pg. 5) 2018 flu data: https://t.co/ScfwvS5ZYF?amp=1 (death stats shown on pg. 5) Present stats on Cov d: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
And finally, if we look to countries or states that did not shut down, thus far, their mortality rates are not functionally different from places that did observe economic shut down and masking. Grrrr! I’m not finding my data for these resources; please know I found many! I can say Phil Kerpen’s twitter feed is full of these types of stats (further below in the section on returning kids to school).
This very last graphic regarding death stats is the most revealing. If we compare Covid deaths to other causes of other types of death, i.e. pneumonia, statistically speaking we should not necessarily ‘curves’ that are exact matches. The top of the graphic shows only Covid deaths, the bottom of the graphic shows other types of death included, yet we see similar decline in numbers for other types of death. This may very well be because the deaths reported due to Covid are not accurately reported.
Herd Immunity:
April 2, 2020 Dr. Sapphire and Dr./Sen. Cassidy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVST3bgIi6Q
July 7, 2020 Dr. Scott Atlas https://youtu.be/EIoflYsp7Wg?t=1768 (playback starts at 29:28)
We are seeing herd immunity kick in. If you looked at the above articles or watched the videos, some of those experts were reporting on herd immunity. Based on researching the above, many doctors are seeing Covid cases heal quicker, have lighter symptoms, see a very high rate of non-symptomatic cases – basically a case of Covid, for the normal person, is getting much easier, demonstrating herd immunity.
Returning Kids to School:
Phil Kerpen, an American free-market policy analyst and political organizer has amassed a trove of data from many experts on risks to children returning to school. The data has been compiled into a pdf that can be downloaded here: https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CTUP_NotSafeToKeepSchoolsClosed_Study-1.pdf
The bottom line of his several page report, citing stats from several countries, is children 0-17 have very low hospitalization rates, children are not a significant source of transmission and have a lower percentage chance of contracting Covid. Additionally, he digs into many other factors affecting children: incidence of child abuse is quickly rising; for some kids, the meals at schools are best nutrition some children receive; children are not effectively learning online, many not even showing up to virtual class, etc.
Below are a couple of social posts that Kerpen shared that provide useful data.
On July 16, 2020, Victor Davis Hansen, Fellow, Hoover Inst. speaks with Fox about returning kids to school https://youtu.be/xeuCGmddqGI?t=659 playback starts at 10:59 and discusses the LA teachers demands before re-opening schools, and covers CA Covid stats regarding death rate and general population (the lowest) very briefly at 12:25, and ends by covering how small a risk of Covid transmission children are.